HAGHANI-WHITE MODEL MERTON SHARE HALF-KELLY
NAV$466,385.61 P&L$-4,839 Exposure$361,330 L/S63.1/36.9 Pos58 Win%60.3% Violations7
IB LIVE
1PORT
2PERF
3SIZER
4ORDERS
5ALERTS
6SHORTS
7SECTORS
8FINTWIT
9MODEL
0IB CONN
Long $
$228,094
63.1% (tgt 70.0%)
Short $
$133,236
36.9% (tgt 30.0%)
Net Exp
$94,858
Long P&L
$-5,210
Short P&L
$371
Winners
35
Losers
23
L/S Ratio
63.1%
36.9%
Target: 70.0/30.0
POSITIONS — 30 LONG / 28 SHORT
Ticker Side Qty AvgCost Last MktVal P&L P&L% Wgt% StopLoss SL Dist Sector Signal
PANW LNG 300 161.06 156.00 46,800 -1,519 -3.1% 10.0% 146.64 6.0% Technology TRIM
PMVP LNG 27,000 1.59 1.32 35,518 -7,489 -17.4% 7.6% 1.24 6.1% Healthcare EXIT
ZM LNG 350 81.73 79.10 27,685 -921 -3.2% 5.9% 74.35 6.0% Technology TRIM
QCLS LNG 5,900 3.57 3.65 21,535 465 2.2% 4.6% 3.43 6.0% Technology OK
INFY SHT -1,500 14.11 13.36 -20,040 1,129 5.3% 4.3% 14.16 -6.0% Technology OK
CVNA SHT -40 324.97 336.50 -13,460 -461 -3.5% 2.9% 356.69 -6.0% Consumer Cyclicals WATCH
PLTR SHT -100 127.20 129.05 -12,905 -185 -1.5% 2.8% 136.79 -6.0% NASDAQ OK
SLNO SHT -200 46.68 52.61 -10,522 -1,185 -12.7% 2.3% 55.77 -6.0% Healthcare WATCH
TONX LNG 4,508 2.09 2.09 9,419 14 0.1% 2.0% 1.96 6.2% Technology OK
SNDK SHT -10 799.88 856.14 -8,561 -563 -7.0% 1.8% 907.51 -6.0% Technology WATCH
IDYA LNG 200 35.72 36.69 7,338 194 2.7% 1.6% 34.49 6.0% Healthcare OK
WIT SHT -3,200 2.26 2.18 -6,962 285 3.9% 1.5% 2.31 -6.0% Technology OK
AAOI LNG 40 128.62 151.74 6,070 925 18.0% 1.3% 142.64 6.0% Technology STRONG
NBIS SHT -40 140.97 145.31 -5,812 -174 -3.1% 1.2% 154.03 -6.0% NASDAQ WATCH
SIVE LNG 4,000 1.20 1.44 5,777 984 20.5% 1.2% 1.35 6.2% Technology STRONG
QAT SHT -300 19.16 19.25 -5,775 -25 -0.4% 1.2% 20.41 -6.0% Broad OK
SYM SHT -100 53.59 54.00 -5,400 -41 -0.8% 1.2% 57.24 -6.0% Industrials OK
LITE LNG 6 873.16 894.80 5,369 130 2.5% 1.1% 841.11 6.0% Technology OK
VNP LNG 200 23.78 25.67 5,133 378 7.9% 1.1% 24.13 6.0% Basic Materials OK
MPT SHT -1,000 4.64 4.94 -4,940 -300 -6.5% 1.1% 5.24 -6.1% Real Estate WATCH
TSLA SHT -14 363.89 351.30 -4,918 176 3.5% 1.1% 372.38 -6.0% Consumer Cyclicals OK
BCRX LNG 500 8.98 9.60 4,800 308 6.8% 1.0% 9.02 6.0% Healthcare OK
KNSA LNG 100 42.40 47.05 4,705 465 11.0% 1.0% 44.23 6.0% Healthcare OK
P34 LNG 5,100 0.89 0.89 4,564 33 0.7% 1.0% 0.84 5.6% SGX OK
ANL LNG 400 10.51 11.27 4,508 304 7.2% 1.0% 10.59 6.0% Healthcare OK
SMH LNG 10 418.50 436.87 4,369 184 4.4% 0.9% 410.66 6.0% Technology OK
SANA LNG 1,300 4.28 3.12 4,056 -1,507 -27.1% 0.9% 2.93 6.1% Healthcare EXIT
LQDA LNG 100 34.37 38.48 3,848 411 12.0% 0.8% 36.17 6.0% Healthcare OK
WCEO SHT -100 33.21 34.18 -3,418 -97 -2.9% 0.7% 36.23 -6.0% Broad WATCH
SOFI SHT -200 15.33 16.24 -3,248 -182 -5.9% 0.7% 17.21 -6.0% Financials WATCH
APAD LNG 309 10.06 10.24 3,164 55 1.8% 0.7% 9.63 6.0% Financials OK
CAPR SHT -100 29.91 31.19 -3,119 -128 -4.3% 0.7% 33.06 -6.0% Healthcare WATCH
TECX LNG 100 19.05 30.69 3,069 1,164 61.1% 0.7% 28.85 6.0% Healthcare STRONG
CRVS LNG 200 13.26 15.09 3,018 366 13.8% 0.7% 14.18 6.0% Healthcare OK
LNG SHT -10 300.64 265.00 -2,650 356 11.8% 0.6% 280.90 -6.0% Energy OK
IVA LNG 500 6.92 5.25 2,625 -832 -24.1% 0.6% 4.93 6.1% Healthcare EXIT
OWL SHT -300 8.75 8.22 -2,466 159 6.0% 0.5% 8.71 -6.0% Financials OK
PCRX LNG 100 22.61 23.79 2,379 118 5.2% 0.5% 22.36 6.0% Healthcare OK
ASAN SHT -400 6.33 5.48 -2,192 339 13.4% 0.5% 5.81 -6.0% Technology OK
DOCU SHT -50 47.37 43.00 -2,150 219 9.2% 0.5% 45.58 -6.0% Technology OK
SRPT LNG 100 16.85 21.28 2,128 443 26.3% 0.5% 20.00 6.0% Healthcare STRONG
ZBIO LNG 100 18.01 20.45 2,045 244 13.6% 0.4% 19.22 6.0% Healthcare OK
UAE SHT -100 19.21 19.21 -1,921 0 0.0% 0.4% 20.36 -6.0% Broad OK
PALI LNG 1,000 1.89 1.84 1,840 -45 -2.4% 0.4% 1.73 6.0% Healthcare WATCH
KD SHT -150 12.66 12.23 -1,834 64 3.4% 0.4% 12.96 -6.0% Technology OK
RGNX LNG 200 8.09 8.81 1,761 143 8.8% 0.4% 8.28 6.0% Healthcare OK
UGRO SHT -100 24.24 16.36 -1,636 788 32.5% 0.3% 17.34 -6.0% Consumer Non-Cyc STRONG
QURE LNG 100 14.80 15.38 1,538 58 3.9% 0.3% 14.46 6.0% Healthcare OK
TRIN SHT -100 14.71 15.15 -1,515 -44 -3.0% 0.3% 16.06 -6.0% Financials WATCH
HTGC SHT -100 14.09 14.96 -1,496 -87 -6.2% 0.3% 15.86 -6.0% Financials WATCH
IBRX LNG 200 8.53 7.28 1,456 -250 -14.6% 0.3% 6.84 6.0% Healthcare EXIT
TENX LNG 100 14.90 14.31 1,431 -59 -4.0% 0.3% 13.45 6.0% Healthcare WATCH
TEAM SHT -25 68.02 57.20 -1,430 270 15.9% 0.3% 60.63 -6.0% Technology STRONG
FIVN SHT -100 15.12 13.60 -1,360 152 10.1% 0.3% 14.42 -6.0% Technology OK
GBDC SHT -100 12.11 12.71 -1,271 -60 -4.9% 0.3% 13.47 -6.0% Financials WATCH
TCPC SHT -300 3.64 3.82 -1,146 -53 -4.8% 0.2% 4.05 -6.0% Financials WATCH
OBDC SHT -100 11.04 10.88 -1,088 16 1.5% 0.2% 11.53 -6.0% Financials OK
3105 LNG 10 11.80 14.63 146 28 23.9% 0.0% 13.75 6.0% TPEX STRONG
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE — JAN 2 - APR 9, 2026
LOADING PERFORMANCE DATA...
MERTON SHARE POSITION SIZER — f* = (mu - r) / (gamma * sigma^2)
Merton f*
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Alloc %NAV
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Dollar Size
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Shares
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Stop Loss
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Max Loss
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SL %
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Risk/Reward
-
Sector Status
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SHORT HEDGE REQUIRED (70/30)
BLOCKED:
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RULE VIOLATIONS (7)
PANW concentration
Position 10.0% of NAV exceeds max 5%. Reduce by $23,428.
PANW overweight
PANW at 10.0% is overweight. Max 5%. Historical pattern: MSFT at 19.45% avg weight led to -1.64% CTR loss. Oversized conviction bets destroy risk-adjusted returns.
PMVP concentration
Position 7.6% of NAV exceeds max 5%. Reduce by $12,146.
PMVP overweight
PMVP at 7.6% is overweight. Max 5%. Historical pattern: MSFT at 19.45% avg weight led to -1.64% CTR loss. Oversized conviction bets destroy risk-adjusted returns.
ZM sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: ZM is in uninvestable sector "Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)". Reason: AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
ZM concentration
Position 5.9% of NAV exceeds max 5%. Reduce by $4,313.
ZM overweight
ZM at 5.9% is overweight. Max 5%. Historical pattern: MSFT at 19.45% avg weight led to -1.64% CTR loss. Oversized conviction bets destroy risk-adjusted returns.
WARNINGS (107)
3105 stop_loss
3105: No stop-loss set!
3105 sector_tailwind
3105 (TPEX) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
3105 position_count
58 positions is excessive. Target 15-20 max. Historical pattern: 50+ symbols led to overdiversification and attention dilution.
3105 ls_ratio
L/S ratio imbalanced: 63%/37% (target: 70%/30%). Need $-35,482 more in shorts.
AAOI stop_loss
AAOI: No stop-loss set!
ANL stop_loss
ANL: No stop-loss set!
ANL sector_tailwind
ANL (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
APAD stop_loss
APAD: No stop-loss set!
APAD sector_tailwind
APAD (Financials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
ASAN stop_loss
ASAN: No stop-loss set!
BCRX stop_loss
BCRX: No stop-loss set!
CAPR stop_loss
CAPR: No stop-loss set!
CAPR sector_tailwind
CAPR (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
CRVS stop_loss
CRVS: No stop-loss set!
CRVS sector_tailwind
CRVS (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
CVNA stop_loss
CVNA: No stop-loss set!
CVNA sector_tailwind
CVNA (Consumer Cyclicals) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
DOCU stop_loss
DOCU: No stop-loss set!
FIVN stop_loss
FIVN: No stop-loss set!
GBDC stop_loss
GBDC: No stop-loss set!
HTGC stop_loss
HTGC: No stop-loss set!
IBRX stop_loss
IBRX: No stop-loss set!
IBRX sector_tailwind
IBRX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
IDYA stop_loss
IDYA: No stop-loss set!
IDYA sector_tailwind
IDYA (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
INFY stop_loss
INFY: No stop-loss set!
INFY concentration
Position at 4.3% of NAV, approaching limit of 5%.
IVA stop_loss
IVA: No stop-loss set!
IVA sector_tailwind
IVA (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
KD stop_loss
KD: No stop-loss set!
KNSA stop_loss
KNSA: No stop-loss set!
KNSA sector_tailwind
KNSA (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
LITE stop_loss
LITE: No stop-loss set!
LNG stop_loss
LNG: No stop-loss set!
LQDA stop_loss
LQDA: No stop-loss set!
MPT stop_loss
MPT: No stop-loss set!
MPT sector_tailwind
MPT (Real Estate) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
MPT penny_stock
MPT at $4.94 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
NBIS stop_loss
NBIS: No stop-loss set!
NBIS sector_tailwind
NBIS (NASDAQ) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
OBDC stop_loss
OBDC: No stop-loss set!
OWL stop_loss
OWL: No stop-loss set!
OWL sector_tailwind
OWL (Financials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
P34 stop_loss
P34: No stop-loss set!
P34 sector_tailwind
P34 (SGX) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
P34 penny_stock
P34 at $0.89 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
PALI stop_loss
PALI: No stop-loss set!
PALI sector_tailwind
PALI (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PALI penny_stock
PALI at $1.84 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
PANW stop_loss
PANW: No stop-loss set!
PANW sector_tailwind
PANW (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PCRX stop_loss
PCRX: No stop-loss set!
PCRX sector_tailwind
PCRX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PLTR stop_loss
PLTR: No stop-loss set!
PLTR sector_tailwind
PLTR (NASDAQ) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PMVP stop_loss
PMVP: No stop-loss set!
PMVP sector_tailwind
PMVP (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PMVP penny_stock
PMVP at $1.32 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
QAT stop_loss
QAT: No stop-loss set!
QAT sector_tailwind
QAT (Broad) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
QCLS stop_loss
QCLS: No stop-loss set!
QCLS sector_tailwind
QCLS (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
QCLS concentration
Position at 4.6% of NAV, approaching limit of 5%.
QCLS penny_stock
QCLS at $3.65 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
QURE stop_loss
QURE: No stop-loss set!
RGNX stop_loss
RGNX: No stop-loss set!
SANA stop_loss
SANA: No stop-loss set!
SANA penny_stock
SANA at $3.12 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
SIVE stop_loss
SIVE: No stop-loss set!
SIVE sector_tailwind
SIVE (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SIVE penny_stock
SIVE at $1.44 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
SLNO stop_loss
SLNO: No stop-loss set!
SLNO sector_tailwind
SLNO (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SMH stop_loss
SMH: No stop-loss set!
SNDK stop_loss
SNDK: No stop-loss set!
SNDK sector_tailwind
SNDK (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SOFI stop_loss
SOFI: No stop-loss set!
SOFI sector_tailwind
SOFI (Financials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SRPT stop_loss
SRPT: No stop-loss set!
SYM stop_loss
SYM: No stop-loss set!
SYM sector_tailwind
SYM (Industrials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TCPC stop_loss
TCPC: No stop-loss set!
TCPC penny_stock
TCPC at $3.82 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
TEAM stop_loss
TEAM: No stop-loss set!
TECX stop_loss
TECX: No stop-loss set!
TECX sector_tailwind
TECX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TENX stop_loss
TENX: No stop-loss set!
TENX sector_tailwind
TENX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TONX stop_loss
TONX: No stop-loss set!
TONX sector_tailwind
TONX (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TONX penny_stock
TONX at $2.09 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
TRIN stop_loss
TRIN: No stop-loss set!
TSLA stop_loss
TSLA: No stop-loss set!
TSLA sector_tailwind
TSLA (Consumer Cyclicals) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
UAE stop_loss
UAE: No stop-loss set!
UAE sector_tailwind
UAE (Broad) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
UGRO stop_loss
UGRO: No stop-loss set!
UGRO sector_tailwind
UGRO (Consumer Non-Cyc) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
VNP stop_loss
VNP: No stop-loss set!
VNP sector_tailwind
VNP (Basic Materials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
WCEO stop_loss
WCEO: No stop-loss set!
WCEO sector_tailwind
WCEO (Broad) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
WIT stop_loss
WIT: No stop-loss set!
WIT penny_stock
WIT at $2.18 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
ZBIO stop_loss
ZBIO: No stop-loss set!
ZBIO sector_tailwind
ZBIO (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
ZM stop_loss
ZM: No stop-loss set!
SHORT POSITION SUGGESTIONS
Ticker Sector Thesis Size% Size$
ZM Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.) AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable 1.0% $4,674
SECTOR CYCLE MAP
Precious metals, gold/silver miners
MID
Central bank buying + de-dollarization. Demand structural, not speculative yet.
GLD SLV GDX GDXJ NEM GOLD
Oil, gas, energy infrastructure
MID
Underinvestment thesis intact. AI power demand adding new leg.
USO XLE LNG OXY
Rare disease therapeutics, gene therapy
EARLY
FDA approvals accelerating. Market not pricing pipeline value.
SRPT QURE RGNX SANA BCRX LQDA
Photonics, optical networking, silicon photonics
LATE
Demand real (800G/1.6T), but Serenity-driven retail bid is crowded. Trim, dont add.
AAOI LITE COHR II-VI IIVI
Chip design, manufacturing, equipment
LATE
AI capex cycle priced in. Cyclical risk rising. Hold winners, no new entries.
SMH TSM ASML LRCX KLAC AMAT MRVL
AI infrastructure, data centers, power for AI
LATE
Mag7 capex guidance is the only catalyst left. Priced for perfection.
NVDA AVGO SMH ANET VRT EQIX
Quantum computing hardware and software
POST-HYPE
Crypto-2017 pattern. Retail mania, no real revenue. Avoid new longs entirely.
IONQ RGTI QUBT QBTS
SECTOR ALLOCATION
SectorLongShortNet#
TPEX $146 $0 $146 1
Technology $127,023 $44,530 $82,493 16
Healthcare $88,063 $13,641 $74,422 20
Financials $3,164 $12,230 $-9,066 8
Consumer Cyclicals $0 $18,378 $-18,378 2
Energy $0 $2,650 $-2,650 1
Real Estate $0 $4,940 $-4,940 1
NASDAQ $0 $18,717 $-18,717 2
SGX $4,564 $0 $4,564 1
Broad $0 $11,114 $-11,114 3
Industrials $0 $5,400 $-5,400 1
Consumer Non-Cyc $0 $1,636 $-1,636 1
Basic Materials $5,133 $0 $5,133 1
UNINVESTABLE (SHORT ONLY)
Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)
AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
DOCU ASAN TEAM ZM FIVN
Business Development Companies, private credit
Credit risk in rising rate / recession environment
GBDC HTGC OBDC TCPC TRIN
IT services / outsourcing disrupted by AI
AI coding agents replacing outsourced dev work
INFY WIT KD
FINTWIT SIGNAL:NOISE TRACKER
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ADD SIGNAL
THE MISSING BILLIONAIRES — HAGHANI & WHITE
Merton Share (Optimal Allocation)
f* = (mu - r) / (gamma * sigma^2)
mu = Expected annual return  |  r = Risk-free rate (4.5%)  |  gamma = Risk aversion (3.0)  |  sigma = Annual volatility
Kelly Criterion
f* = (p * b - q) / b
p = Win probability  |  q = Loss probability (1-p)  |  b = Win/loss ratio
Applied as Half-Kelly (50%) for real-world safety.
Stop-Loss (ATR Method)
Stop = Price - 2 * ATR(14)
Hard cap: never risk > 10% per position.
Risk Rules
1. Anti-Doubling-Down — Never add to position down >5%
2. Max Position — 5.0% NAV per position
3. L/S Ratio — 70/30 long/short
4. Short Size — <1% NAV each short
5. Tailwind Only — Longs in structural momentum sectors only
6. No Grave Dancing — Block longs in disrupted sectors
7. Penny Stock — 50% sizing reduction for sub-$5
8. Position Count — Max 20-25 names
9. Max Drawdown — 15% portfolio DD = go to cash
INTERACTIVE BROKERS CONNECTION
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SETUP
  1. Open TWS or IB Gateway and log in with your credentials there
  2. Go to Edit > Global Configuration > API > Settings
  3. Enable "ActiveX and Socket Clients"
  4. Set Socket Port: 7497 (paper) or 7496 (live)
  5. Uncheck "Read-Only API" for order placement
  6. Add 127.0.0.1 to Trusted IPs
  7. Click Apply