HAGHANI-WHITE MODEL MERTON SHARE HALF-KELLY
NAV$467,443.57 P&L$-3,795 Exposure$519,413 L/S80.0/20.0 Pos52 Win%57.7% Violations19
IB OFFLINE
1PORT
2PERF
3SIZER
4ALERTS
5SHORTS
6SECTORS
7MODEL
8IB CONN
Long $
$415,504
80.0% (tgt 70.0%)
Short $
$103,909
20.0% (tgt 30.0%)
Net Exp
$311,595
Long P&L
$-4,121
Short P&L
$326
Winners
30
Losers
18
L/S Ratio
80.0%
20.0%
Target: 70.0/30.0
POSITIONS — 29 LONG / 23 SHORT
Ticker Side Qty AvgCost Last MktVal P&L P&L% Wgt% StopLoss SL Dist Sector Signal
SQQQ LNG 3,800 42.65 42.79 162,602 532 0.3% 34.8% 40.22 6.0% Broad TRIM
USO LNG 1,000 76.18 76.18 76,180 0 0.0% 16.3% 71.61 6.0% Energy TRIM
PMVP LNG 27,000 1.59 1.33 35,910 -7,020 -16.4% 7.7% 1.25 6.0% Healthcare EXIT
QCLS LNG 5,900 3.57 3.57 21,063 0 0.0% 4.5% 3.36 5.9% Technology OK
INFY SHT -1,500 14.11 13.76 -20,640 525 2.5% 4.4% 14.59 -6.0% Technology OK
ZM LNG 200 83.28 84.03 16,806 150 0.9% 3.6% 78.99 6.0% Technology OK
PANW LNG 100 172.71 166.99 16,699 -572 -3.3% 3.6% 156.97 6.0% Technology WATCH
CVNA SHT -40 324.97 326.93 -13,077 -78 -0.6% 2.8% 346.55 -6.0% Consumer Cyclicals OK
SLNO SHT -200 46.68 52.51 -10,502 -1,166 -12.5% 2.2% 55.66 -6.0% Healthcare WATCH
TONX LNG 4,508 2.09 2.10 9,467 45 0.5% 2.0% 1.97 6.2% Technology OK
SNDK SHT -10 799.88 851.57 -8,516 -517 -6.5% 1.8% 902.66 -6.0% Technology WATCH
WIT SHT -3,200 2.26 2.26 -7,232 0 0.0% 1.6% 2.40 -6.2% Technology OK
IDYA LNG 200 35.72 31.00 6,200 -944 -13.2% 1.3% 29.14 6.0% Healthcare EXIT
DELFI LNG 5,100 1.13 1.11 5,661 -102 -1.8% 1.2% 1.04 6.3% Consumer Non-Cyc OK
LITE LNG 6 873.16 894.13 5,365 126 2.4% 1.1% 840.48 6.0% Technology OK
SYM SHT -100 53.59 53.59 -5,359 0 0.0% 1.1% 56.81 -6.0% Industrials OK
AAOI LNG 40 128.63 133.30 5,332 187 3.6% 1.1% 125.30 6.0% Technology OK
BCRX LNG 500 8.99 9.89 4,945 450 10.0% 1.1% 9.30 6.0% Healthcare OK
TSLA SHT -14 363.89 345.62 -4,839 256 5.0% 1.0% 366.36 -6.0% Consumer Cyclicals OK
MPT SHT -1,000 4.64 4.83 -4,830 -190 -4.1% 1.0% 5.12 -6.0% Real Estate WATCH
ANL LNG 400 10.51 12.00 4,800 596 14.2% 1.0% 11.28 6.0% Healthcare OK
KNSA LNG 100 42.40 47.33 4,733 493 11.6% 1.0% 44.49 6.0% Healthcare OK
3105 LNG 10 374.57 436.00 4,360 614 16.4% 0.9% 409.84 6.0% Technology STRONG
SANA LNG 1,300 4.28 3.12 4,056 -1,508 -27.1% 0.9% 2.93 6.1% Healthcare EXIT
LQDA LNG 100 34.37 40.32 4,032 595 17.3% 0.9% 37.90 6.0% Healthcare STRONG
SOFI SHT -200 15.33 16.27 -3,254 -188 -6.1% 0.7% 17.25 -6.0% Financials WATCH
APAD LNG 309 10.06 10.27 3,173 65 2.1% 0.7% 9.65 6.0% Financials OK
CAPR SHT -100 29.91 31.61 -3,161 -170 -5.7% 0.7% 33.51 -6.0% Healthcare WATCH
CRVS LNG 200 13.26 15.67 3,134 482 18.2% 0.7% 14.73 6.0% Healthcare STRONG
TECX LNG 100 19.05 31.09 3,109 1,204 63.2% 0.7% 29.22 6.0% Healthcare STRONG
IVA LNG 500 6.92 5.50 2,750 -710 -20.5% 0.6% 5.17 6.0% Healthcare EXIT
LNG SHT -10 300.64 265.77 -2,658 349 11.6% 0.6% 281.72 -6.0% Energy OK
OWL SHT -300 8.75 8.28 -2,484 141 5.4% 0.5% 8.78 -6.0% Financials OK
PCRX LNG 100 22.61 23.82 2,382 121 5.3% 0.5% 22.39 6.0% Healthcare OK
ASAN SHT -400 6.33 5.73 -2,292 240 9.5% 0.5% 6.07 -5.9% Technology OK
DOCU SHT -50 47.37 45.55 -2,278 91 3.8% 0.5% 48.28 -6.0% Technology OK
SRPT LNG 100 16.85 22.23 2,223 538 31.9% 0.5% 20.90 6.0% Healthcare STRONG
ZBIO LNG 100 18.01 21.28 2,128 327 18.2% 0.5% 20.00 6.0% Healthcare STRONG
PALI LNG 1,000 1.89 1.98 1,980 90 4.8% 0.4% 1.86 6.1% Healthcare OK
KD SHT -150 12.66 12.79 -1,918 -20 -1.0% 0.4% 13.56 -6.0% Technology OK
RGNX LNG 200 8.09 8.96 1,792 174 10.8% 0.4% 8.42 6.0% Healthcare OK
QURE LNG 100 14.80 16.30 1,630 150 10.1% 0.3% 15.32 6.0% Healthcare OK
UGRO SHT -100 24.24 15.48 -1,548 876 36.1% 0.3% 16.41 -6.0% Consumer Non-Cyc STRONG
TRIN SHT -100 14.71 15.09 -1,509 -38 -2.6% 0.3% 16.00 -6.0% Financials WATCH
IBRX LNG 200 8.53 7.48 1,496 -210 -12.3% 0.3% 7.03 6.0% Healthcare EXIT
TENX LNG 100 14.90 14.96 1,496 6 0.4% 0.3% 14.06 6.0% Healthcare OK
HTGC SHT -100 14.09 14.74 -1,474 -65 -4.6% 0.3% 15.62 -6.0% Financials WATCH
TEAM SHT -25 68.02 58.96 -1,474 226 13.3% 0.3% 62.50 -6.0% Technology OK
FIVN SHT -100 15.12 13.82 -1,382 130 8.6% 0.3% 14.65 -6.0% Technology OK
GBDC SHT -100 12.11 12.58 -1,258 -47 -3.9% 0.3% 13.33 -6.0% Financials WATCH
TCPC SHT -300 3.64 3.83 -1,149 -57 -5.2% 0.2% 4.06 -6.0% Financials WATCH
OBDC SHT -100 11.04 10.76 -1,076 28 2.5% 0.2% 11.41 -6.0% Financials OK
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE — JAN 2 - APR 9, 2026
LOADING PERFORMANCE DATA...
MERTON SHARE POSITION SIZER — f* = (mu - r) / (gamma * sigma^2)
Merton f*
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Alloc %NAV
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Dollar Size
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Shares
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Stop Loss
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Max Loss
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SL %
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Risk/Reward
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Sector Status
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SHORT HEDGE REQUIRED (70/30)
BLOCKED:
RULE VIOLATIONS (19)
ASAN sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: ASAN is in uninvestable sector "Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)". Reason: AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
DOCU sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: DOCU is in uninvestable sector "Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)". Reason: AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
FIVN sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: FIVN is in uninvestable sector "Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)". Reason: AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
GBDC sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: GBDC is in uninvestable sector "Business Development Companies, private credit". Reason: Credit risk in rising rate / recession environment
HTGC sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: HTGC is in uninvestable sector "Business Development Companies, private credit". Reason: Credit risk in rising rate / recession environment
INFY sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: INFY is in uninvestable sector "IT services / outsourcing disrupted by AI". Reason: AI coding agents replacing outsourced dev work
KD sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: KD is in uninvestable sector "IT services / outsourcing disrupted by AI". Reason: AI coding agents replacing outsourced dev work
OBDC sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: OBDC is in uninvestable sector "Business Development Companies, private credit". Reason: Credit risk in rising rate / recession environment
PMVP concentration
Position 7.7% of NAV exceeds max 5%. Reduce by $12,538.
PMVP overweight
PMVP at 7.7% is overweight. Max 5%. Historical pattern: MSFT at 19.45% avg weight led to -1.64% CTR loss. Oversized conviction bets destroy risk-adjusted returns.
TCPC sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: TCPC is in uninvestable sector "Business Development Companies, private credit". Reason: Credit risk in rising rate / recession environment
TEAM sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: TEAM is in uninvestable sector "Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)". Reason: AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
TRIN sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: TRIN is in uninvestable sector "Business Development Companies, private credit". Reason: Credit risk in rising rate / recession environment
WIT sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: WIT is in uninvestable sector "IT services / outsourcing disrupted by AI". Reason: AI coding agents replacing outsourced dev work
ZM sector_tailwind
BLOCKED: ZM is in uninvestable sector "Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)". Reason: AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
SQQQ concentration
Position 34.8% of NAV exceeds max 5%. Reduce by $139,230.
SQQQ overweight
SQQQ at 34.8% is overweight. Max 5%. Historical pattern: MSFT at 19.45% avg weight led to -1.64% CTR loss. Oversized conviction bets destroy risk-adjusted returns.
USO concentration
Position 16.3% of NAV exceeds max 5%. Reduce by $52,808.
USO overweight
USO at 16.3% is overweight. Max 5%. Historical pattern: MSFT at 19.45% avg weight led to -1.64% CTR loss. Oversized conviction bets destroy risk-adjusted returns.
WARNINGS (94)
AAOI stop_loss
AAOI: No stop-loss set!
AAOI position_count
52 positions is excessive. Target 15-20 max. Historical pattern: 50+ symbols led to overdiversification and attention dilution.
AAOI ls_ratio
L/S ratio imbalanced: 80%/20% (target: 70%/30%). Need $74,164 more in shorts.
ANL stop_loss
ANL: No stop-loss set!
ANL sector_tailwind
ANL (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
APAD stop_loss
APAD: No stop-loss set!
APAD sector_tailwind
APAD (Financials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
ASAN stop_loss
ASAN: No stop-loss set!
BCRX stop_loss
BCRX: No stop-loss set!
CAPR stop_loss
CAPR: No stop-loss set!
CAPR sector_tailwind
CAPR (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
CRVS stop_loss
CRVS: No stop-loss set!
CRVS sector_tailwind
CRVS (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
CVNA stop_loss
CVNA: No stop-loss set!
CVNA sector_tailwind
CVNA (Consumer Cyclicals) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
DOCU stop_loss
DOCU: No stop-loss set!
FIVN stop_loss
FIVN: No stop-loss set!
GBDC stop_loss
GBDC: No stop-loss set!
HTGC stop_loss
HTGC: No stop-loss set!
IBRX stop_loss
IBRX: No stop-loss set!
IBRX sector_tailwind
IBRX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
IDYA stop_loss
IDYA: No stop-loss set!
IDYA sector_tailwind
IDYA (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
INFY stop_loss
INFY: No stop-loss set!
INFY concentration
Position at 4.4% of NAV, approaching limit of 5%.
IVA stop_loss
IVA: No stop-loss set!
IVA sector_tailwind
IVA (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
KD stop_loss
KD: No stop-loss set!
KNSA stop_loss
KNSA: No stop-loss set!
KNSA sector_tailwind
KNSA (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
LITE stop_loss
LITE: No stop-loss set!
LNG stop_loss
LNG: No stop-loss set!
LQDA stop_loss
LQDA: No stop-loss set!
MPT stop_loss
MPT: No stop-loss set!
MPT sector_tailwind
MPT (Real Estate) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
MPT penny_stock
MPT at $4.83 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
OBDC stop_loss
OBDC: No stop-loss set!
OWL stop_loss
OWL: No stop-loss set!
OWL sector_tailwind
OWL (Financials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PALI stop_loss
PALI: No stop-loss set!
PALI sector_tailwind
PALI (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PALI penny_stock
PALI at $1.98 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
PANW stop_loss
PANW: No stop-loss set!
PANW sector_tailwind
PANW (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PCRX stop_loss
PCRX: No stop-loss set!
PCRX sector_tailwind
PCRX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PMVP stop_loss
PMVP: No stop-loss set!
PMVP sector_tailwind
PMVP (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
PMVP penny_stock
PMVP at $1.33 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
QCLS stop_loss
QCLS: No stop-loss set!
QCLS sector_tailwind
QCLS (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
QCLS concentration
Position at 4.5% of NAV, approaching limit of 5%.
QCLS penny_stock
QCLS at $3.57 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
QURE stop_loss
QURE: No stop-loss set!
RGNX stop_loss
RGNX: No stop-loss set!
SANA stop_loss
SANA: No stop-loss set!
SANA penny_stock
SANA at $3.12 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
SLNO stop_loss
SLNO: No stop-loss set!
SLNO sector_tailwind
SLNO (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SNDK stop_loss
SNDK: No stop-loss set!
SNDK sector_tailwind
SNDK (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SOFI stop_loss
SOFI: No stop-loss set!
SOFI sector_tailwind
SOFI (Financials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SRPT stop_loss
SRPT: No stop-loss set!
SYM stop_loss
SYM: No stop-loss set!
SYM sector_tailwind
SYM (Industrials) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TCPC stop_loss
TCPC: No stop-loss set!
TCPC penny_stock
TCPC at $3.83 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
TEAM stop_loss
TEAM: No stop-loss set!
TECX stop_loss
TECX: No stop-loss set!
TECX sector_tailwind
TECX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TENX stop_loss
TENX: No stop-loss set!
TENX sector_tailwind
TENX (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TONX stop_loss
TONX: No stop-loss set!
TONX sector_tailwind
TONX (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
TONX penny_stock
TONX at $2.10 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
TRIN stop_loss
TRIN: No stop-loss set!
TSLA stop_loss
TSLA: No stop-loss set!
TSLA sector_tailwind
TSLA (Consumer Cyclicals) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
UGRO stop_loss
UGRO: No stop-loss set!
UGRO sector_tailwind
UGRO (Consumer Non-Cyc) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
WIT stop_loss
WIT: No stop-loss set!
WIT penny_stock
WIT at $2.26 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
ZBIO stop_loss
ZBIO: No stop-loss set!
ZBIO sector_tailwind
ZBIO (Healthcare) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
ZM stop_loss
ZM: No stop-loss set!
DELFI stop_loss
DELFI: No stop-loss set!
DELFI sector_tailwind
DELFI (Consumer Non-Cyc) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
DELFI penny_stock
DELFI at $1.11 is a penny stock. Historical pattern: PMVP ($1.33, -$7K loss), MTEN (-2.16% CTR). These have asymmetric downside. Reduce sizing by 50%.
3105 stop_loss
3105: No stop-loss set!
3105 sector_tailwind
3105 (Technology) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
SQQQ stop_loss
SQQQ: No stop-loss set!
SQQQ sector_tailwind
SQQQ (Broad) not in defined tailwind sectors. Consider whether this has genuine structural momentum.
USO stop_loss
USO: No stop-loss set!
SHORT POSITION SUGGESTIONS
DEFICIT: $74,164 more shorts needed for 70/30 target — 15 positions at ~1% NAV each
Ticker Sector Thesis Size% Size$
ZM Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.) AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable 1.0% $4,674
TAILWIND SECTORS (LONG)
Photonics, optical networking, silicon photonics
Stage: early | Conf: 80%
AAOI LITE COHR II-VI IIVI
Precious metals, gold/silver miners
Stage: mid | Conf: 70%
GLD SLV GDX GDXJ NEM GOLD
AI infrastructure, data centers, power for AI
Stage: mid-late | Conf: 60%
NVDA AVGO SMH ANET VRT EQIX
Quantum computing hardware and software
Stage: early | Conf: 50%
IONQ RGTI QUBT QBTS
Rare disease therapeutics, gene therapy
Stage: early | Conf: 60%
SRPT QURE RGNX SANA BCRX LQDA
Oil, gas, energy infrastructure
Stage: mid | Conf: 70%
USO XLE LNG OXY
Chip design, manufacturing, equipment
Stage: mid | Conf: 70%
SMH TSM ASML LRCX KLAC AMAT MRVL
SECTOR ALLOCATION
SectorLongShortNet#
Technology $79,092 $45,732 $33,360 15
Healthcare $88,796 $13,663 $75,133 20
Financials $3,173 $12,204 $-9,031 8
Consumer Cyclicals $0 $17,916 $-17,916 2
Energy $76,180 $2,658 $73,522 2
Real Estate $0 $4,830 $-4,830 1
Industrials $0 $5,359 $-5,359 1
Consumer Non-Cyc $5,661 $1,548 $4,113 2
Broad $162,602 $0 $162,602 1
UNINVESTABLE (SHORT ONLY)
Traditional SaaS being disrupted by AI (Claude, etc.)
AI disruption makes these cheap-but-uninvestable
DOCU ASAN TEAM ZM FIVN
Business Development Companies, private credit
Credit risk in rising rate / recession environment
GBDC HTGC OBDC TCPC TRIN
IT services / outsourcing disrupted by AI
AI coding agents replacing outsourced dev work
INFY WIT KD
THE MISSING BILLIONAIRES — HAGHANI & WHITE
Merton Share (Optimal Allocation)
f* = (mu - r) / (gamma * sigma^2)
mu = Expected annual return  |  r = Risk-free rate (4.5%)  |  gamma = Risk aversion (3.0)  |  sigma = Annual volatility
Kelly Criterion
f* = (p * b - q) / b
p = Win probability  |  q = Loss probability (1-p)  |  b = Win/loss ratio
Applied as Half-Kelly (50%) for real-world safety.
Stop-Loss (ATR Method)
Stop = Price - 2 * ATR(14)
Hard cap: never risk > 10% per position.
Risk Rules
1. Anti-Doubling-Down — Never add to position down >5%
2. Max Position — 5.0% NAV per position
3. L/S Ratio — 70/30 long/short
4. Short Size — <1% NAV each short
5. Tailwind Only — Longs in structural momentum sectors only
6. No Grave Dancing — Block longs in disrupted sectors
7. Penny Stock — 50% sizing reduction for sub-$5
8. Position Count — Max 20-25 names
9. Max Drawdown — 15% portfolio DD = go to cash
INTERACTIVE BROKERS CONNECTION
Connect to IB TWS or Gateway. Log into TWS first, then connect here via socket. Never enter your IB username/password here — authentication happens in TWS.
SETUP
  1. Open TWS or IB Gateway and log in with your credentials there
  2. Go to Edit > Global Configuration > API > Settings
  3. Enable "ActiveX and Socket Clients"
  4. Set Socket Port: 7497 (paper) or 7496 (live)
  5. Uncheck "Read-Only API" for order placement
  6. Add 127.0.0.1 to Trusted IPs
  7. Click Apply